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International Energy Agency or IEA stated in a latest report today that India is poised to be the primary driver of global coal demand growth in 2024, with a y-o-y increase of 70 million tonnes or Mt to 1315 Mt. It projects India maintaining this position through to 2027, despite China’s undisputed position as the world’s largest coal market. Indian coal demand is expected to grow by 2.6% annually, reaching 1 421 Mt by 2027, with growth across all coal grades. It anticipates India to have used 990 Mt, or 75% of its total coal consumption, for power generation in 2024. In August 2024 India's total installed power generation capacity amounted to 451 GW, of which 218 GW was coal-fired, 89 GW was solar PV and 47 GW was wind. In November 2023 the Minister of Power stated that India plans to add 30 GW of new coal-fired capacity in addition to the 50 GW currently under construction. This does not contradict the target of achieving 500 GW of renewable generation capacity by 2030, but it indicates that coal will continue to play a significant role in India’s electricity system for years to come.
For 2024 global coal demand is projected to grow by 1.0%, setting a new all-time high of 8 771 Mt. The slower coal demand growth in Asia, partially offset by falling demand in advanced economies, results in slower global growth. Global electricity generation is expected to have grown by 4.4% in 2024, reaching 31 099 TWh. Global coal demand continues its shift eastward, with China, India and ASEAN countries expected to consume three-quarters of total demand in 2024, a significant increase from around 35% at the start of the century. In absolute terms, the most significant increases in 2024 are anticipated to have been in India (up 70 Mt, or 6%) and China (up 56 Mt, or 1.1%), together with others like Indonesia and Viet Nam. In India, the government is incentivising production from public companies, mainly Coal India, as well as captive and commercial producers. As a result, output is set to rise by over 7%. India’s non-power thermal coal and lignite consumption is projected to continue its upward trend, with industrial activity expected to grow by nearly 6% annually over the next three years. IEA estimates India's consumption increasing by 44 Mt by 2027.
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